CPI Tracking: Preview of November 2022 release

Insights

With the full-month data for November, we now estimate that Food at Home monthly inflation decelerated by a wider margin than what we observed in our early preview. We now expect that Food at Home monthly inflation decelerated by ~18 bps compared to Oct.

Compared to our early preview note, we observe stronger decelerations in most major sub-categories, notably in Fruits and vegetables. This was partially offset by an acceleration in Cereals products, albeit at a smaller magnitude than our previous estimate.

On an annual basis, owing in part to the base effect, we expect Food at Home's annual inflation to recede to ~11.7% in Nov 2022, from the pace of 12.4% in Oct.

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CPI Preview Data

Monthly Inflation Date (as of 2022-12-01)	Oct 2022 Actual (Reported)	Lower	Midpoint	Upper	Direction
Cereals & Bakery Products	0.79%	0.63%	0.83%	1.03%	accel
Dairy & related Products	(0.06%)	(0.32%)	(0.12%)	0.08%	decel
Fruits & Vegetables	(0.87%)	(1.15%)	(0.95%)	(0.75%)	decel
Meat, Poultry, Fish, & Eggs	0.61%	0.4`%	0.51%	0.71%	decel
Food At Home Component	0.40%	0.02%	0.22%	0.42%	decel

Methodology

Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.

Image Credit: Photo by Gemma on Unsplash.com