CPI Tracking: Preview of Sept 2022 release 

Insights

Our analysis using Odyssey full-month data as of 31-Aug-2022 provides results consistent with our prior early preview. We’re seeing a ~35bps deceleration in the rate of monthly inflation for Food at home in Aug, as compared to Jul. This would still leave Food at home monthly inflation at an elevated level of near 1.0%, down from 1.34% in July.

We observe sharp decelerations in Cereals and bakery, and in Dairy products, partially offset by accelerations in Sugar and sweets, and to a lesser extent, Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials. Compared to our Early Preview, we see a stronger acceleration in Sugar and sweets, but also a sharper deceleration in Dairy products.

On an annual basis, because of the base effect from last year, we estimate Food at Home's annual inflation will continue moving to ~13.8% in Aug '22, from the pace of 13.1% in July.

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Preview Breakdown

Methodology

Using the Odyssey retail point of sale dataset we have constructed some estimated CPI forecasts based on a simple and robust filtering and scoring methodology. We plan on releasing category and brand level insights bi-monthly.

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