Preview: $CHD Q2 Earnings - Organic Sales Decelerate

Using our updated Odyssey2 panel, our data science team has analyzed 2022 FQ22 sales of $CHD brands to arrive at a preview of Church & Dwight's upcoming earnings call.

Commentary

DecaData’s data panel shows deceleration in the pace of Volume YoY for CHD Consumer Domestic segment, for 2022 FQ2 as compared to FQ1. During FQ2, the pace of Pricing YoY remained relatively flat / slightly decelerating compared to FQ1. Altogether, these resulted in deceleration in Organic Sales growth for this segment compared to 2022 FQ1.

We observe from our POS data that the headwinds in volume appeared to show little signs of improvement during FQ2 as well as July month-to-date. This posed challenges for the segment’s overall organic growth and might steer its result towards the lower end of management’s guidance.

Forecast Data

Odyssey 2 data best lends itself to measuring and modeling CHD’s consumer domestic segment. We are forecasting strong pricing growth to offset decline in volume that nets out at +2.35% organic sales growth on Q2 21.

Ticker CHD

Segment	Metric	Actual 2022 FQ1	ODY Estimates 2022 FQ2	Lower	Midpoint	Upper	Direction
CHD Consumer Domestic	Organic sales YoY	2.70%		2.10%	2.35%	2.60%	Decel
CHD Consumer Domestic	Pricing YoY	8.70%		8.30%	8.50%	8.70%	Flat/Decel
CHD Consumer Domestic	Volume YoY	(6.00%)		(6.50%)	(6.20%)	(6.00%)	Decel

Consumer Domestic Organic Sales Chart